When can Pakistan be off the red list for travel?

Pakistan is still on the red list after the latest government update on August 26, and will remain there for the next three weeks. The next update is due the week of September 16th, and any changes will take effect a few days later.

Britons returning from Pakistan must self-quarantine for 10 days at a government approved hotel, at a cost of up to £2,285 per person.

There is still hope that Pakistan will appear in mid-September. In early August, for the first time since the UK’s hotel quarantine policy was introduced in February, four red-listed countries were upgraded to amber this month, all from the Middle East. Pakistan’s neighbor India was among those, and the two countries currently have similar data on cases and vaccination rates.

So when can Pakistan follow suit, and be removed from the red list? We achieve…

How does the government decide traffic lights?

Although we don’t know the exact numbers that qualifies a country for red, amber or green status, we do know that the government uses the following criteria to identify traffic lights.

  • Percentage of the country’s population that has been vaccinated
  • infection rate
  • The spread of worrying variables
  • State access to reliable scientific data and genetic sequencing

The first two criteria are readily available, and this is the data we analyze in the assessment below. Information on variants of concern, and details of each country’s access to reliable data/genome sequencing, is not publicly available.

What does the data look like in Pakistan?

Pakistan’s current seven-day case rate (as of August 26) is 23 per 100,000 citizens, which is low and still falling. For comparison, the UK is at 355 per 100,000 and is rising.

However, the country’s vaccination numbers are also of great importance. Pakistan has now provoked only 10 percent of its population, with 27 percent taking their first dose.

However, India is not ahead of Pakistan in its vaccination campaign. Only 11 percent of citizens got both doses, and that was enough for the nation to get off the red list.

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