When Australia reaches its coronavirus vaccination targets and sees lockdowns, restrictions end
This year started with a lot of promise.
After several months of harsh restrictions, draconian lockdowns, economic uncertainty, open country borders, isolation, loneliness and a constant barrage of fear, 2021 seemed to be marked by one thing: hope.
We hope Australia’s success in suppressing Covid-19 continues. I hope that sudden upheavals in everyday life will be a thing of the past.
We hope that the rapid spread of multiple vaccines will put an end to the epidemic and put the country – and indeed the world – on the path to freedom.
But here we are in August, with only 19 percent of the eligible population fully vaccinated, and hopefully the end is in sight and the lofty vaccination targets are reached. It seems impossible.
You may not feel it, but freedom is closer than you think.
Analysis of the vaccination rate across Australia points to rapid progress in reaching milestones that governments say are key to opening up and avoiding the kinds of city and state-wide lockdowns that have strained our social fabric.
Read on to find out when Australia – and your state or territory – will be free.
Based on current figures, the ACT and Northern Territory will be the first to reach the 70 per cent vaccination target, and New South Wales was the first state to reach there.
The current status of the offering
Much has been said and written about the shameful efforts of the federal government to get a good shot of beer.
Around this time in 2020, Prime Minister Scott Morrison reiterated to the public that Australia was at the front of the pack when it came to securing doses for the main contenders.
In short, we weren’t remotely close to the front of the pack, and a combination of agonizing factors has made us ranked last in the developed world – 38th out of 38 countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Vaccination against Covid-19 is the only way for Australians to get back to their normal lives, but as a nation we are struggling.
News.com.au’s Best Shot campaign answers your questions about the rollout of a Covid-19 vaccine.
It is fair to say that the introduction of the vaccine has confused Australians. We’ll go over the details and give you clear information so you can make an informed decision.
Related: Should you get the Covid-19 vaccine?
A number of the original goals were overlooked and abandoned, replaced by less ambitious goals, many of which were also not achieved.
Elderly care workers, who are part of the first priority group, remain largely unprotected.
There is confusion about who is eligible now and how they can go about getting a quick and easy injection.
Stock levels remain severely restricted, particularly for the Pfizer vaccine.
And vaccination frequency, at least toward the AstraZeneca shot, is very high thanks to the confusion and anxiety caused by shockingly bad communication.
As it stands, 12.3 million total doses of coronavirus vaccines have been administered across the country.
This equates to 19.04 percent of people aged 16 or older who have received two doses and 40.7 percent who have received one dose so far.
Friday night, Mr. Morrison Announcing a new roadmap to freedomThis confirms that 70 per cent of the eligible population will need to be fully vaccinated before starting to ease the strict restrictions.
The near-complete end of the grueling lockdown cycle would require 80 percent of people to be double stabbed.
Both of these goals must be achieved at the national level And At the state level, in what the prime minister described as a “two-key process”.
No targets for the date have been agreed upon by the national cabinet, but Mr Morrison said he hopes to reach the 70 per cent target by the end of the year.
“There will definitely be supply, distribution, and the opportunity to do that,” he said. “But the question of whether that has been achieved is up to all of us.”
How long until we get there
Perhaps the lesson learned from setting goals that are too ambitious to be achieved, Mr. Morrison’s goal of hitting 70 percent of a fully vacant position by the time we hit the new year is a bit conservative.
A look at the current trajectory of the rollout suggests that Australia will achieve that goal sooner, in time for a completely free Christmas.
the site covidlive.com.au He collected and tracked various data sets related to the Covid-19 pandemic, from active cases to the sources of outbreaks.
It also closely monitors the vaccine roll-out status at the national, state and territory levels.
Based on an average of seven days of total doses taken in a 24-hour window, from February 22 to the present, she also calculated the number of days until Australia reached its 70 per cent and 80 per cent targets.
Nationwide, 70 percent of the eligible adult population will be fully vaccinated in 130 days, it is estimated, which is December 10.
Eight out of 10 people will get both doses in 156 days, according to covidlive.com.au, which falls on January 5 next year.
The road to freedom
The new plan Mr Morrison announced on Friday sets out a three-phase response to the Covid pandemic, including criteria for vaccinating the population.
It was agreed – in principle – by state and territory leaders at the national cabinet meeting that day.
Phase A, which we are currently in, is about suppressing the virus — responding quickly to an outbreak with drastic measures, including locking down cities and states.
Phase B, which the country will transition into when 70 percent of adults are vaccinated, will see serious illnesses and fewer deaths, relieving pressure on the hospital system.
Authorities warn that lockdowns may continue at this point, but they will be less common than we are used to.
In a bit of an incentive to get a jab, the prime minister signaled an easing of restrictions for those in the 70 per cent group, saying: “If you are vaccinated, you present less risk to public health.”
He added: “You are less likely to catch the virus. You are less likely to send it.”
The kinds of freedoms that vaccination might have are not fully detailed, nor how they will be monitored.
Based on the current rate of vaccine delivery, this is when the target of 70 per cent for Australians aged 16 or older is expected to be reached.
Nationwide: 139 days (December 10)
New South Wales: 80 days (21 October)
Victoria: 107 days (November 17)
Queensland: 130 days (December 10)
Australian Capital Territory: 63 days (4 October)
South Australia: 102 days (November 12)
Western Australia: 112 days (November 22)
Northern Territory: 65 days (October 6)
Tasmania: 95 days (November 5)
Sources: covidlive.com.au, covidbaseau.com
Phase C is where freedom truly comes true, with a fully fortified 80 percent target that sees an end to extensive lockdowns and other perks such as domestic travel waivers.
Only highly targeted closures will be imposed in the event of an outbreak, such as strict measures for vulnerable population groups.
In the last stage, Covid will be treated like any other infectious disease, such as influenza.
Based on the current rate of vaccine delivery, this is when the 80 per cent target for Australians aged 16 or older is expected to be reached.
Nationwide: 156 days (January 5)
New South Wales: 100 days (November 10)
Victoria: 134 days (December 14)
Queensland: 161 days (10 January)
Australian Capital Territory: 82 days (23 October)
South Australia: 128 days (December 8)
Western Australia: 138 days (December 18)
Northern Territory: 86 days (October 27)
Tasmania: 123 days (December 3)
Sources: covidlive.com.au, covidbaseau.com
How to get there faster
These dates are based on rolling rates of vaccine delivery to date.
Enhanced supply levels, faster delivery mechanisms and greater uptake of the population can see goals reached much sooner.
For example, NSW health authorities believe there has been a slight increase in vaccines given – 82,000 doses have been given in the past 24 hours – and a surge in supplies for Pfizer’s vaccine will see the 70 per cent target met in early September.
There are only five weeks left. If this scenario happens, the current lockdown will end and broader restrictions will begin to ease.
The return of some sense of normalcy could come sooner if vaccination rates increase, and it was pointed out yesterday.
“Once you get 50 per cent vaccine, 60 per cent, 70 per cent, that leads to more freedoms,” New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian said on Sunday. “We can change this in four weeks.”
The lockdown is set to end on August 28 but as new cases continue to increase daily, it will likely be extended.
We have August to raise vaccination rates as much as possible. Let August be the month we break records with vaccination.”
The message is that the faster you get stressed, the faster phases B and C can be met.