What are the chances of the Astros retaining their free agents?

Free agency officially kicked off in Major League Baseball last Sunday, and with a labor conflict likely for the sport when the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, this will be one of the most interesting free agency seasons in recent history. Will the teams do their best to secure deals before December arrives, or will they play it conservatively and see what the new landscape brings in the upcoming CBA?

It must be cool, and the Houston Astros’ decision-making process will be under heavy scrutiny by Astros fans, given some of the big names and notable pieces from recent playoff teams to be launched into the wilderness the MLB free agency. Along those lines, there are seven 2021 Houston Astros heading to free dealership this week. Here are my estimates of everyone’s chances of returning to the stars in 2022:

Carlos Corra, SS
We dedicated an entire post earlier this week to Korea’s chances of survival in Astro form. In short, the odds are not good. Not good at all, my friends. The Astros made a very responsible (but painfully inappropriate) offer for 5 years, $160 million, considering Korea is looking for a ten-year deal. Honestly, I understand the Astros’ thinking, and if there is clarity at all about the code they live in, eg, “We’re not going to pay for the back end of someone’s walk, even if it’s one of our local guys,” comes from dealing with Korea. The real test will be what will happen with Jose Altuve’s twilight years in two seasons, but for now, we know this – there are no clippings in Jim Crane’s scrapbook.

Percent chance of Korea coming back in 2022:
10 percent

Justin Verlander. SP
Verlander got a two-year extension worth $66 million in 2019 for the 2020 and 2021 seasons. The Astros earned a total of six innings for $66 million, as Verlander needed Tommy John surgery after one start in the 2020 season that was cut short due to the coronavirus. The Astros made the eligible one-year bid, $18.4 million over the weekend. I’d be surprised if Verlander doesn’t drive more, but his market could be the biggest wild card of the off season. If Verlander still wants to chase the rings, pinning the top of the rotation with Lance McCullers and small arms here might be in the cards. However, I think Verlander’s favorite is to reunite with AJ Hinch and the city of Detroit, and play with the Tigers.

Chance to return VERLANDER in 2022: 15 percent

Zack Greinke, SP
All in all, the Astros likely got what they expected from two season-plus seasons for Grenke. They’ve made him at the tail end of a top-tier cut, and it looks like while Greinke still has an absolute spot in the big league rotation, he’d likely make a fourth start for a good team, or an experienced second start for any team. another team. Unlike Verlander, the Astros did not submit the eligible bid for one year, $18.4 million to Greinke.


Kendall Graviman, R
Graveman came from Seattle on the trade deadline, and when he arrived he was leading the AL in the ERA. The Astros suffered some of their inevitable regression to the mediocre, but nonetheless, Graveman was a valuable piece of the bulls’ game, as the eighth man in the halftime setting to Ryan Pressly. With only a year left on the Pressly deal, I could have signed Graveman on the market setup man’s contract for many years, perhaps getting closer in 2023, much like Presley taking over once Roberto Osuna was no longer available.


Yemi Garcia, RP
I would say similar things about Garcia as Grafman did above. Garcia was more shakier in the regular season than Grafman, but he may have been the team’s best loyalist in the postseason. Dusty Baker has great confidence in Garcia, and with Baker back for another season, perhaps that increases the urgency to bring Garcia back for a reasonable deal.

Percent chance of GARCIA returning in 2022: 50 percent

Brooks Raleigh, R
The Raley is another Dusty favorite, which might be a very economical option as a situational left arm. As long as the market is a “bargaining box,” I can see Rally return for another season in Houston.

Percent chance of RaleY returning in 2022: 60 percent

Marwin Gonzalez, YOTEL
To be clear, I think the Astros should sign Marwin to a life contract just because he’s in the dugout. He doesn’t even have to be an active Major League Baseball player. It’s just Marwin, and I love having him around. I doubt he’s back, because Carlos Correa was the incentive to bring him in, and we know the odds of Carlos coming back. So let’s put Marwin’s probabilities as Carlos’ probabilities.

Percent chance of Gonzales returning in 2022: 10 percent

Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m., seven days a week. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast And the same on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.


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