Met office warns of flooding with double probability of La Niña forecast for Australia | Australia weather
Australia must brace for flooding this storm season with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predicting a double chance of a rainy day. the little girl formation.
La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall in northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer. Bohm climatologist Tamika Tiyama says the bureau has predicted a double chance of La Niña formation following updates to its current modeling.
“This does not guarantee that a La Niña will occur, but there is a roughly 50% chance of a La Niña forming. This means that nearly half of the climate models used by the Bureau indicate that a La Niña is likely to develop.
Tihema says the potential for La Niña to affect severe weather, with above-average rain expected in the eastern two-thirds of the country for the rest of the year, has increased the risk of flooding.
For many regions, including parts of eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, northern Tasmania and the southwest Western part of AustraliaAnd in northern Australia, soil moisture is wetter than average.” “Since this will mean more rain on wet soils, there is an increased risk of flooding in these areas.”
Tehima said the increased chance of a La Niña event is partly due to sea surface temperatures in the tropical central Pacific that have cooled over the past two months.
“We are seeing changes in both observations and climate model projections that indicate an increased chance of a La Niña event in the coming months,” she said.
“The chances of average rainfall exceeding 70% in much of the eastern two-thirds of the country for the rest of 2021.
“The chances of above-average precipitation for the period from November to January are about 60% or more in the eastern two-thirds of Australia.”
New South Wales State Commissioner Carlene York said this year’s storm season – which traditionally runs from October to March – is likely to bring similar conditions to last year, including widespread torrential rain and the risk of rivers and flash floods.
“During the previous storm season, we had significant flooding across the state,” York said.
“It wasn’t long ago that our volunteers responded to a major flood event that overwhelmed communities across Hawkesbury-Nepean, Hunter and the Central North Coast. We have witnessed this event alone respond to more than 14,000 requests for assistance, including more than 1,000 flood rescues.
“It is very important that communities make sure they are prepared. Storms can happen at any time. The more you can do now to prepare, the less likely you are to need emergency assistance from our volunteers when these weather events hit.”
York said Covid-safe practices have been implemented to respond to the ongoing lockdowns and health measures.
Bohm says while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a “naturally occurring” part of the climate system, climate change continues to influence shifting weather patterns. Temperatures in Australia have risen by 1.44°C since records began in 1910.
Southern Australia has experienced a 10-20% decrease in precipitation during its cold season in recent decades, while northern Australia has increased precipitation during the rainy season since the 1990s, with an increased frequency of shorter, heavier rainfall.
“Research indicates that El Niño may cause heavy rains in the central and eastern tropical Pacific under global warming, and La Niña may be heaviest in the western Pacific and over the southern Pacific… But what these changes mean for Australia is not Obviously,” Tehima said.
Research also indicates that there may be an increase in the frequency of large El Niño and La Niña events. What the future holds for El Niño and La Niña phenomena and their effects is the subject of current research.”