Here’s what history says about the stock market’s performance during Thanksgiving week

Will you devour US stock market investors during Thanksgiving week or tryptophan overdose?

This is the question some might be thinking as Wall Street finished its last full week of trading in November and is gearing up for a holiday period that usually features some of the lowest trading volumes of the year.

US financial markets are closed on Thursday, November 26 for the Thanksgiving holiday and after Thursday’s close, since 1992, stock exchanges have adhered to a shortened trading schedule on the Friday after Thanksgiving in the US.

The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will close at 1 p.m. ET on Friday, while the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association has recommended that US bond markets close at 2 p.m. ET.

Against this backdrop, Thanksgiving has become synonymous with low-volume trading, which can sometimes result in choppy movement.

So how has the market performed in this scene? Not bad?

The folks at Bespoke Investment Group say Thanksgiving week has afforded itself modest gains for stocks dating back to 1945.

Since that point, the researchers say, “Thanksgiving week has averaged 60 basis points, or 0.60 percentage points, to advance the S&P 500 Index.”
SPX,
-0.14%
And
With the best returns coming on the Wednesday before the holiday and Black Friday, and the only average dip on Monday, the start of the week.

Bespoke Investment Group

Lately, however, Bespoke says, gains have shifted to Mondays into Thanksgiving week, with slight dips on Tuesday and crowds in the final two days of the session.

The prospects for gains could be encouraging for investors given the potential for inflation concerns and uncertainty about Fed leadership, as President Biden is expected to decide whether to extend Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair, which expires in February, or potentially turn into a bank. Federal Reserve. Governor Lyle Brainard.

Markets mostly closed lower on the Friday before Thanksgiving, with the S&P 500
SPX,
-0.14%

Nasdaq booked 0.4%
COMP,
+ 0.40%

Recording a weekly gain of 1.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.75%

The close closed lower for the second week in a row, down 1.4%.

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